WHO PROFITS FROM AN UNCERTAIN WORLD?
- il y a 11 minutes
- 2 min de lecture
Aug. 2026
What if the generation accused of being unable to tolerate uncertainty is being trained never to escape it? The next message, like, ranking, image or scandal may arrive at any moment—or not at all. Uncertainty is no longer only a condition of the future. Digital platforms turn it into the rhythm of the present.
Psychiatry does not diagnose intolerance of uncertainty as an independent disorder; clinical psychology and psychiatry treat it as a transdiagnostic vulnerability. A 2026 meta-analysis of 115 studies found strong associations between intolerance of uncertainty, worry and several anxiety disorders (Akbari et al. 2026). The evidence is real, but its gaze remains fixed on the individual: it measures who suffers from uncertainty, not who organizes the uncertain environment.
In an fMRI study of 84 adolescents, uncertain reward cues produced neural responses distinct from certain reward and non-reward cues. Outcomes following uncertainty elicited stronger activity in reward and salience regions, while anxiety, depression and anhedonia were associated with different patterns of uncertainty processing (Liu et al. 2026). The study did not examine social media. It establishes something narrower: uncertain reward is neuropsychologically active, not empty waiting.
Turner and colleagues provide another part of the mechanism. Analysing 2,696 users, they found that posting was best explained by a combination of reward learning and habit: likes influenced subsequent posting, while frequent posting became more habitual (Turner et al. 2026). They did not test uncertainty or algorithmic sequencing. But they showed that digital recognition updates behaviour. When recognition is variable and unresolved, social uncertainty can enter this learning loop—an inference the existing evidence makes plausible but does not yet prove.
Psychiatry will continue to locate vulnerability inside the person while cybercapitalism scales environments that continually solicit it. Uncertainty provokes checking; checking occasionally produces recognition or relief; every attempt to resolve uncertainty generates data for further recalibration.
This is pathomorphic selection: vigilance, comparison and compulsive checking become economically useful states of mind. The cognitive autonomous weapon need not command anxiety. It only needs to make anxiety capable of producing the next profitable action.
Liviu Poenaru
References
Akbari, Mehdi, et al. 2026. “A Hierarchical Uncertainty Framework of Anxiety.” Clinical Psychology Review 128: 102773. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2026.102773.
Liu, Qi, et al. 2026. “Neural Response to Reward Uncertainty in Adolescents with Mood and Anxiety Symptoms.” Neuropsychopharmacology 51: 1623–33. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41386-026-02412-3.
Turner, Georgia, et al. 2026. “A Computational Model of Reward Learning and Habits on Social Media.” Nature Communications 17: 7170. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73547-6.
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